The latest housing market data has taken on the shape of an oscilloscope as mortgage rates have fallen, house prices have soared, mortgage lending has fallen and home tenures have risen. elongated longer than before.
Mortgage Rate News: Freddie Mac (OTC: FMCC) reported that the 30-year fixed rate mortgage averaged 3.76% for the week ending March 3, down from 3.89% last week. The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.01%, down from 3.14% last week, and the five-year Treasury-indexed hybrid variable-rate mortgage averaged 2.91%, down from last week when it averaged 2.98%.
Sam KhaterFreddie Mac’s chief economist, attributed the decline to Vladimir Poutine.
“Geopolitical tensions pushed US Treasury yields lower this week as investors turned to bond safety, driving mortgage rates lower,” Khater said.
“While inflationary pressures persist, the cascading effects of the war in Ukraine have created market uncertainty. As a result, rates are expected to remain low in the near term but will likely rise in the months ahead. »
Real estate price news: A new data report from real estate agent.coma division of press company (NASDAQ: NWSA) subsidiary Move Inc., determined that the median U.S. listing price rose 12.9% year-over-year to a new all-time high of $392,000; the previous peak of $385,000 occurred in July 2021.
Chief Economist Realtor.com Danielle Hale observed that it was “the record was broken in February, signaling that competition is already heating up weeks before the start of the spring shopping season in a typical year.”
The largest year-over-year February listing price increases were recorded in the Southern (+12.5%) and Western (+12.1%) state metro areas, including Las Vegas (+39.6%), Miami (+31.6%) and Tampa (+31.5%). The largest year-over-year home price declines were seen in Rochester, New York (-18.2%), Detroit (-16.5%) and Pittsburgh (-14%).
Hale added that February also saw the first signs of improvement in housing inventory levels, although she noted: “Continued improvement in inventories will depend on a variety of economic and geopolitical factors, including the conflict in Ukraine. and rising mortgage rates, which have not impacted home sales or price growth so far, but will increasingly reduce the purchasing power of buyers.
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Mortgage news: The fourth quarter 2021 report on residential property mortgage origination in the United States published by ATTOM showed that 3.27 million mortgages secured by residential property (one to four units) were taken out in the fourth quarter of 2021, down 11% from the previous quarter and 13% from the previous quarter. ‘last year.
This is the third consecutive quarter of declining mortgage volume, while the annual percentage decline was the highest since the end of 2018.
Todd TetaChief Product Officer at ATTOM, cautioned: “The decline in residential mortgage business volume is now manifesting across all major lending categories and appears to be more than just a temporary dip. lending that began in early 2021 has fully expanded to home buying and home equity lending.”
Separately, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported that mortgage applications fell 0.7% for the week ending February 25.
“While there has been an increase in government refinance applications, higher rates continue to push potential refinance borrowers out of the market,” said Joel Can, Associate Vice President of Economic and Sector Forecasting at the MBA. “Purchasing activity remained weak, but the average loan size increased again, indicating that house price growth remains strong,
and more of the activity occurs at the higher end of the market.
Home occupancy news: The increase in the number of years the average homeowner stays in their residence is also having an impact on the housing market.
red fin (NASDAQ: RDFN) reported that the typical American homeowner in 2021 spent 13.2 years in their home, slightly lower than the 2020 peak of 13.5 years but well above the 10.1 years recorded in 2012.
Multiple reasons have been cited for the longer tenure: more elderly homeowners are aging in place, fewer homes are available for purchase, and historically low mortgage rates have encouraged many homeowners to refinance. on very favorable terms.
Whether this trend will continue remains to be seen.
“Homeowner occupancy may have already peaked, or the drop in 2021 could be a sharp blow before climbing back up,” said Redfin’s chief economist. Daryl Fairweather. “There are competing forces at work. Remote work encourages homeowners to sell their homes in expensive cities and move to more affordable areas, which could lower occupancy rates. But on the other hand, rising mortgage rates may discourage people from selling and older Americans are staying put longer, which could push it back up.
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