MLB DFS: Model Picks, Value Plays and Top Stack May 12


The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models contain many data points to help you build your MLB DFS rosters.

They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for every player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.

Also, don’t forget that for large field tournaments, you can use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to build your teams for tournament play. money or small field tournaments.

Now, let’s dive into a few MLB games that stand out in our player models for Thursday Night’s slate.

Choice of bargain odds value

You might be wondering: what is bargain scoring and why should I care?

The bargain rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site compared to others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than on the other, he will have a favorable bargain rating on the site where it is more affordable and a bad bargain rating on the site where it is more expensive. It’s a simple metric, but targeting discounted players is almost always a solid strategy in DFS.

Deal rating is highly correlated to player value, which you can quickly see with our projected Over/Under forecast metric.

Seeing how Over/Under helps you project how many points a player should score versus what their salary implies they score, that’s good business for Bargain Rating.

MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value

Michael Taylor ($2,300): Outfielder, Kansas City Royals

It should be noted that tonight’s slate will be different depending on the venue. FanDuel is offering a four-game slate starting at 6:35 p.m. ET, while DraftKings is offering a three-game slate at 8:05 p.m. ET. This means the game between the Reds and Pirates is not an option on DraftKings.

The Royals are coming off a monstrous 8-2 victory last night, making it 12 points scored in their last two games. Michael Taylor got in on the action, recording two runs and an RBI in those outings, but could see his fantasy value skyrocket on Thursday.

Taylor’s expected values ​​are all higher than the reality, implying that he is a candidate for progression over the next few games. The Royals outfielder has an expected hitting percentage of .419, which is significantly higher than his actual rating of .282. Likewise, it’s well below his career average of .382, which also lends itself to increased productivity from Taylor.

Right-handed hitter Taylor also gets a favorable pitching game against the southpaw Taylor Hearn. Hearn pitched 20.2 innings over five starts, not going past the fifth inning in any of them. The 27-year-old has been icy to start the season, allowing an expected slugging percentage of .549 and an expected on-base scoring average of .415.

The Royals are trending higher and Taylor is among the top-rated bargains in THE BAT X projections on Thursday.

MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain Value

Michael Perez ($2,000): Receiver, Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates have scored five or more points in three of their last five games, coinciding with Michael Perezis back in the lineup. Of course, the Pirates’ offensive push isn’t entirely dependent on Perez, but things have improved since he was recalled from the minors. The 29-year-old is hitting .800 on his first ten hits of the season, with his two hits. Those aren’t his only hard hit balls, as Perez has a 44.4% rating and a 33.3% hard hit rate.

Based on our projections, we expect this to continue on Thursday. Perez is one of the best deals available, with a projected top three plus/minus and the best points/salary rating.

The conclusions we can draw from such a small sample are limited, but we’re not betting against a hot bat in an ideal game. Perez is worth FanDuel’s modest investment.

Choice of ceiling projection MLB DFS


Dylan Cease ($10,000 DraftKings, $10,300 FanDuel) vs. New York Yankees

Six starts in the season and the White Sox ace Dylan Quit already totals 1.4 wins above the replacement. With only a handful of pitching options available, Cease stands out as the best arm on the slate.

The fantastic value of pitchers hinges on their hitting potential, and Cease consistently ranks among the best in the game. The right-hander finished last season with an AL-leading 12.3 strikeouts in nine innings, improving that metric at the start of the season with a mark of 12.4. The New York Yankees have a few free swingers in their roster, boosting Cease’s potential tonight.

However, Cease’s cap is also tied to his ability to control opposing offenses, limiting negative fantasy points impacting his overall rating. The 26-year-old ranks in the 96and percentile or better in hitting percentage, expected slugging percentage, and expected batting average, making him one of the hardest pitchers to get a hit in the majors.

Few pitchers are doing what Cease is right now, and the White Sox ace gives you the best chance of succeeding on tonight’s slate.


Bryce Harper ($5,500 DraftKings, $4,200 FanDuel) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

In last six games, reigning NL MVP Bryce Harper raised his slugging percentage from 0.453 to 0.521. He is expected to continue his onslaught on Thursday, leading THE BAT X ceiling projections as his Phillies take on the Dodgers.

Harper has recorded hits in five of his last six outings, with four multi-hit attempts. He made solid contact by recording three doubles and two homers in that span, raising his expected slugging percentage to .591. His actual slugging percentage remains below expectations, implying there is still room to grow.

There’s more to the six-time All-Star’s fantasy cap than just home run potential, as Harper adds value on the baseline paths as well. The Phillies right fielder has stolen a base in three straight games, making it six this season. We saw a more disciplined approach from Harper to the plate, with just one strikeout over this three-game sample.

The Phillies offense is working effectively on their recent sample, and Harper remains the catalyst. He is our ceiling game on the evening slate.

Best stacking choice of THE BAT X

One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the ability to purchase additional items from the FantasyLabs Marketplace.

A new addition to our MLB screenings is THE BAT by Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use its projections alone or create aggregated projections in our player models.

The stack of five top DraftKings from THE BAT using midfield projections belongs to the Rangers. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you have the option to manually build the rest of your team or optimize the rest.

According to our algorithm, Rangers are the best stacking option available on tonight’s slate. They have several highly rated combinations; however, we’re going to take the correlated approach and use the top five hitters thrown.

Brad Miller is expected to lead and can build on his recent performances in which he went 4 for 7 with two runs, four RBIs and a home run.

Miller is followed by Marcus Semien and Corey Seager, who keep denting baseballs. Seager is the team leader with seven long balls, Semien participating with eight RBIs and 11 runs scored.

The quintuplet is completed by Jonas Heim and Adolis Garcia, who lead Rangers in some notable categories. Heim is the team leader in slugging percentage with a .622 rating, while Garcia paces the team in runs, slap runs and steals.

Rangers’ best hitters should get to Taylor Hearn early and often, making it our favorite stacking option.


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