Welcome to our daily game odds page where you will find the probability of winning for each of the night’s games, along with betting tips based on how those odds compare to market odds. The odds of play take into account each team’s strength (based on projected rosters), home ice and rest. Each team’s projected strength is based on the projected value of the players on its roster based on Game Score Added Value (GSVA). You can read more about GSVA and the model here.
This page will be updated every morning between 10:00 a.m. and 12:00 p.m.
For those unfamiliar with betting, I wrote a guide a few years ago that still stands. It summarizes the basic tricks of the trade and I invite you to read it. Although model picks have been profitable in the past, there is no guarantee that they will always be so – please do not bet money that you are not comfortable with. lose.
For optimal betting strategy, I would recommend plugging each probability into a Kelly Criterion calculator with a Kelly multiplier of 0.35 (the full Kelly is a bit too aggressive for a sport as varied as hockey). Recommended bet sizes will be included to make life easier for some of you, but these will be based on MGM Bet lines at the time of publication. If you see a different line the Kelly Criterion calculator linked above is still the go-to.
Last updated: May 8, 2022, 9:40 a.m. EST
Another double. Game 3 was very good for us, let’s see if game 4 is the same.
- Boston (-125, 1.80) – 4.6%: Let’s go back to the well here. Boston topped the series five-on-five and made a statement at home. The Bruins have a chance to tie the series here. I say they do.
- Minnesota (-105, 1.95) – 3.8%: No Torey Krug means we like the Wild a little more than last time. The last two games have been a shellacking as it looks like the tables have turned in this game. A win here would also be huge for our series bets.
- Los Angeles (+135, 2.35) – 1.9%: Just like Dallas yesterday, that’s about the number. I don’t like to play the Kings here, but this price is a bit expensive.
A beautiful double winning evening for us last night. We like to see it.
- Pittsburgh (+100, 2.00) – 3.4%: A little shocked, the Penguins are basically house dogs tonight considering the amount of overs they’ve controlled. Yes, there is a big gap in the net, but even though I give Louis Domingue the lowest possible rating, I still have Pittsburgh as the favorite. I think we see a big effort from them tonight.
- Dallas (+145, 2.45) – 1.6%: I’m not personally on this one, but I would be if this price was available to me. It’s closer to +135 elsewhere – what MGM hooks up here is pretty ridiculous.
An absolutely massive night to end the season puts us at +20 units over the year. It was an absolute rollercoaster to get there, but we’ll take it. Maybe next year we’ll turn to recency a little earlier.
There’s no advantage on today’s single game, but it’s a good time to talk about the playoffs starting tomorrow. Futures pricing and streak pricing are the name of the game here and here is what I would recommend based on the model.
Win the Stanley Cup
I’ve divided Kelly’s usual bet by three here.
- Colorado +325 – 1%: I am very high on Colorado and have the team rating at +233. There’s value on the favorite, but we’ll see if playoff hockey makes that difficult.
- Florida +550 – 1%: Betting on the two favorites is pretty square, but those two lines seem short. I have Florida at +339.
- Toronto +1000 – 0.3%: I have no bet on the Leafs to win the Cup, but I would at this price. Other markets are closer to +700. I am at +725.
- Minnesota +1800 – 0.3%: The only long shot I will take is the Wild. Obviously. I think they are better than the markets are indicating and their odds are closer to +1050.
I’ve divided Kelly’s usual bet by three here. Unsurprisingly, these are the same teams. You can double down here, or go with either (especially for teams like the Wild or the Leafs who would be Finals underdogs against Florida and Colorado respectively, if those teams were successful).
- Colorado +130 – 1.3%: I think it’s close to 50/50, so getting more money is good value even if it’s not a big win.
- Florida +275 – 1.5%: The East is a dogfight, but the Panthers are the clear favorites in this fight and have a more comfortable path than Toronto, Tampa Bay, Boston or Carolina. This first-round game against Washington helps their chances a lot.
- Toronto +450 – 0.5%: I’m at +360, where other markets have that. Bad line.
- Minnesota +750 – 0.8%: It’s juicy because I’m closer to +440. We never doubt the Wild in this house.
Again, reducing the risk here to a third as there will be daily bets on the games. But still some decent perks to be had. These are all series prices.
- Minnesota (-165, 1.61) – 3.5%: I’m at… uh… -298 on the Wild. Whoops. Far off the market due to the model’s lack of respect for the Blues, but the Wild just aren’t letting us down. They are our turn or die.
- Florida 4-0 (+550, 6.50) – 0.8%: I’m at +376 for a sweep, so decent value at a juicy price.
- Florida -2.5 (+140, 2.40) – 1.5%: I’m +104 for Florida’s win in five or less. This streak feels like a huge mismatch and getting decent money and more for a short streak is nice.
- Toronto (-120, 1.83) – 1.9%: I am at -164 for Toronto. The #LeafsBias never fails.
- Colorado 4-0 (+400, 5.00) – 1.3%: I’m at +245 for a sweep and with a healthy Colorado roster, it’s hard to see Nashville winning much here.
- Colorado -2.5 (+105, 2.05) – 5.0%: I’m at -163 for Colorado winning five or less – so max bet on this one. I think people underestimate a full, healthy Avalanche lineup and overestimate what the Predators can do without Juuse Saros.
Regular season: 201-182, 20.1 units, 5.3% ROI
Playoffs: 7-4, 3.4 units
betstamp profile (2020-21 record does not reflect bet size, therefore there is a discrepancy between what was published in last year’s betting guide)
2020-21 betting guide with record
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